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With great fanfare, General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) announced it was spending $500 million developing the Chevrolet Cruze, a so-called next generation compact car. Investors, who have seen the value of GM's stock slip 60 percent this year, could not have cared less. Shares of the company, which for now is the largest automaker, closed down for the day.

Granted one car is not going to revive General Motors' fortunes, but the Chevrolet Cruze clearly is a step in the right direction. For one thing, it's got a nice design though it certainly did not blow me away. The automaker clearly is trying to build on the popularity of the Chevrolet Cobalt whose sales are up 16 percent year to date. It aso underscores how General Motors is trying to be more efficient.

"The Chevrolet Cruze was designed and engineered by our global teams in Europe and Asia Pacific and will be manufactured in those regions in addition to the assembly plant here in Lordstown, Ohio," said Chief Executive Rick Wagoner in a press release. "Our goal for the Chevrolet Cruze is to lead in fuel economy in this very competitive car segment.

But it's also taking a gamble here.

As the Wall Street Journal points out, "The auto maker believes growing demand for nicer, well-equipped small cars coupled with a dramatic redesign for the Cruze will be enough to command sticker prices well beyond the $15,000 base price of a compact Chevrolet Cobalt."

For Wagoner to keep his job, he's going to have to sell lots of them along with the company's pick-ups and SUVs, which the company and consumers are less enthused about.

Airlines globally could lose $6.1 billion in 2008, on soaring oil prices and financial market dislocation, the head of the International Air Transport Association said, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (subscription required).

Giovanni Bisignani, managing director of the IATA, which represents 230 airlines, called the sector "a fragile industry in a crisis" and that it's "bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing," due to high fuel prices and lower revenue, The Journal reported. Further, the air travel slowdown, once thought to be contained to developed nations, has spread to global air travel's plum: Asia, he added.

Airline slowdown could hurt Boeing, Airbus

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday if the Asian hemisphere is slowing, to go along with sluggish revenue statistics in Europe and the United States, the slowdown "would have wide implications, not just for airlines, but for airplane manufacturers Boeing and Airbus."

"Further consolidation globally, was a given, particularly in nations like India, which had too many airlines even before the global economy slowed, but the concern now is that national carriers will postpone or cancel plane orders," Bauer said. "From a U.S. perspective, that could mean bad news for Boeing. And what's bad news for Boeing is bad news for the U.S economy. Airplane sales have been one of the U.S. economy's few bright spots." [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

It would appear to be axiomatic to say that there are few benefits from an oil price over $100 per barrel. Nevertheless, during oil's latest climb to the stratosphere, some have argued that a high oil price is 'net-positive for the global economy,' or 'a long-term good thing.'

Economist Glen Langan has a word for insta-analysis like the above. "Misguided," he calls them.

Not that Langan is an ardent advocate of oil use; hardly. Would that the developed and developing world could shift today to an alternate, renewable, and more environmentally-friendly energy form, he says. But the world can't, and as is some times the case in social science circles, "the normative influences the empirical," he says, and leads to curious conclusions like an 'oil shock being net-positive for the global economy.'

For the record: an oil shock is never net-positive for the global economy, Langan argues.

There are some benefits, to be sure, such as increased conservation, increased research on alternate/renewable energy forms, a transfer of some wealth to some developing nations and, of course, astounding increases in wealth in those connected to oil and oil services, but the overall effect is net-negative. Oil traded Thursday up $5.46 to $121.42 per barrel.

Japan's yen resumed its rise against higher-interest currencies Thursday, suggesting that the prospect of additional credit market losses continues to lower investors' confidence in global growth and performing assets.

The yen rose as institutional investors continued to decrease their use of the carry trade.

In a carry trade, investors, especially institutional investors, borrow funds in a country with a low interest rate (or borrowing cost) and buy assets in a country where returns are higher. The investment can take many forms, including stocks, bonds, funds, or even the higher-interest currency itself.

The yen strengthened about 1.6 yen to 160.71 versus euro, about 3 yen to 201.95 versus the British pound, and about 1 yen to 108.20 versus the dollar.

Another big mortgage write-off ahead?

Currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Thursday sentiment is building in the foreign exchange and other markets that there will be "another, major housing-related write-off by a bank or series of banks in the U.S. or U.K, or possibly Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) or Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) problems."

"Our 'Forecasts Focus List' contains only two energy stocks, both of which are in the oil services sector: Oceaneering International (NYSE: OII) and Transocean (NYSE: RIG)," says blue chip advisor Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts says, "While stocks in the equipment and services group tend to move with oil prices in the near term, their profits depend more on exploration spending than on commodity prices."

"Concerns about slowing demand for crude oil and re?ned products both in the U.S. and overseas have many investors worried. But investors in the equipment and services group should not panic.

"Most producers continue to spend aggressively. And U.S. crude-oil inventories remain well below the average for this time of year, with fewer than 20 days of supply in storage.

"Demand for offshore-drilling services remains strong, giving Transocean excellent growth potential. Consensus estimates project per-share profits will rise 69% in 2008 and 15% in 2009. Transocean, the world's largest offshore drilling contractor, operates in every major drilling region.

"A combination of tight global rig supplies and the ongoing discovery of new offshore reserves have driven rig lease rates higher and kept Transocean's fleet busy. The company's largest, most expensive rigs are 95% sold out for 2009, and the backlog is growing.

"Whenever anyone asks, 'Why invest in China?' the answer is very simple: that's where the money is, and it's where exponential future economic growth is also," says Jim Trippon.

The editor of The China Stock Digest then asks, "Will China suffers an Oympic hangover?" Here, he explains why that should not happen and offers a look at China Mobile (NYSE: CHL), which he calls the "top dog" in the Chinese wireless sector.

"The Bank of China (BOC) conducted a study of the effects of 12 Olympiads on their host countries over the course of 60 years. They found that nine of the twelve Olympic host countries suffered a decline in GDP growth in the eight years after the games.

"The key to a post Olympic slump is the size of the economy. Smaller economies like Korea suffered larger downturns after the games, while larger economies like the United States were not affected at all. In smaller economies the enormous investment dedicated to staging Olympic games created an artificial bubble which was followed by a slump when Olympic building booms came to an end.

"China has made one of the largest investments ever in the Olympic Games with some estimates of spending topping $40 billion. But we don't believe the capital city will go into a slump after the games.

Minutes from the August Bank of England meeting may reveal a panel divided on an interest rate cut, but don't tell that to the currency market.

The pound fell about 1 cent to $1.8552 versus the dollar Wednesday -- approaching a 2-year low -- as sentiment grew regarding the need for the central bank to cut rates to avoid a recession.

In its August 7 meeting minutes (pdf), during which it kept its benchmark interest rate at 5%, some members argued for a rate cut after private banks in the United Kingdom cut GDP forecasts, while others said a rate increase was needed to check inflation expectations.

U.K. slowdown mirrors U.S. slump

London-based economist Mark Chandler told BloggingStocks Wednesday the inflation pressures stemming from oil's rise are real, but so is Britain's economic slowdown.

"Based on data I've reviewed, we're patterning America, only about a quarter late. GDP in Q2 slowed to 0.2% this year from 0.8% in Q2 last year, which is about the same deceleration rate as Q2 in America," Chandler said. "Almost certainly GDP will be negative for Q3, and I think the currency markets sense this and see a Bank of England rate cut or two up ahead."

"WuXi PharmaTech (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: WX) provides laboratory and manufacturing services for the drug and medical device R&D process," notes China stock specialist Jim Trippon.

In his The China Stock Digest, he explains, "Because Chinese researchers receive much smaller paychecks than their Western counterparts, Shanghai-based WuXi is able to lower the cost of this research." Here's his review.

"We have often heard major Western pharmaceutical companies complain of the extraordinary cost of discovering and developing drugs.

"More costly than the laboratory infrastructure is the burden of paying for armies of highly trained, highly paid chemists, researchers, analysts and physicians. WuXi has become the secret weapon of many big name global pharmaceutical companies.

"China educates tens of thousands of engineers, chemists and technologists, and outsourcing that expertise has become a growth industry. WuXi became a leader in this trend in 2000 and has gone on to attract an impressive roster of clients.

"The firm's senior management team consists of Ph.D.s and MBAs with experience in drug and medical device R&D. Wuxi management has more than 200 patents pending or granted, and has published more than 800 scientific publications.

"Around the globe, wind-generating capacity has been expanding at a rapid 30% clip in recent years," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter, who adds, "And 2008 is already shaping up to be even better."

The editor of Half-Priced Stocks looks at industrial product firm Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN), explaining, "The company's most promising division is involved in the production of structural wind towers." Here's the advisor's of the latest addition to his "deep-discount' model portfolio.

"Led by states such as Texas and California, wind farms around the country will generate almost 50 billion kilowatt hours of electricity this year. Of course, the U.S. is still playing catch-up with many other regions.

"In fact, countries such as Spain, Portugal and Denmark all rely on wind farms for as much as one-quarter of their total power needs. Across Europe, wind turbines will account for roughly one-third of all new generating capacity installed over the next few years and could provide electricity for 90 million people by 2010.

"The outlook is even brighter in many booming, energy-hungry Asian markets. In China, installed wind power capacity surged +130% last year and will reportedly supply a great deal of the electricity needed for the upcoming 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.

"Thanks to the great strides in engineering, wind turbine output has increased by a factor of ten (or higher in some cases) over the past decade.

What's one trend that's starting to feel the pinch of sky-high oil prices?

If you answered 40-mile commutes to work and/or tank-sized SUVs, you're right, but in this case it's the business process called the global supply chain.

The logic of, for example, shipping Brazilian iron ore to China to be made into steel, then shipping it back to Long Beach, California in the form of washing machines is making less sense today than it did when oil was $25 per barrel a decade ago, The New York Times reported.

In fact, some manufacturing that fled Mexico for even-lower-cost-labor China is now returning to Mexico because it's cheaper per unit to manufacture the goods in Mexico and send them to the United States, after oils costs for shipping are considered, The Times reported.

Spanning the world: it isn't cheap

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks that investors / readers should expect more 'repatriation' of manufacturing if oil stays above $100 per barrel.

"Companies will be begin to shift, in some cases, on a product-by-product basis, the production of goods to net lower cost zones," Dawson said. "China's percentage of manufacturing in the world will continue to increase, but the calculus now is more complicated. It's no longer 'O.K., we need 200,000 auto motors, off we go to China.' Those motors may end up being less expensive if secured in Mexico, after transport costs are considered."

The reduction in global economic growth and growth expectations is leading to one benefit: a sharp decline in commodity prices, creating hope inflation may be peaking in many parts of the world, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday (subscription required).

Rice and palm oil, two commodities critical for the developing world, are both down about 40% since May, while the world's most vital commodity, crude oil, is down abut 23%, The Journal reported.

An end to surging commodity prices?

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Monday that while the commodity price-lower trend is still young, continued commodity price declines would be a welcomed sight, provided they don't drop too much.

"The pullback is welcome because many commodities had reached prohibitive levels, hindering commerce and really hurting the modest budgets of the poor/working poor in developing countries," Langan said. "However, too much of a price slide in commodities would be a sign of a pronounced global economic slowdown, which is something we don't want."

Further, Langan said that while regulators in various nations probe 'speculator' activity and alleged price manipulation in commodity markets, he argues that many of the price rises are consistent with historical price booms in other asset classes / sectors.

Some market signals are well-known and easily understood. Others are arcane and more-complex, but just as telling.

There's mounting evidence that the "carry trade" is ending, or that at least institutional investors are decreasing their use of it as an investment tactic.

In a carry trade, investors, especially institutional investors, borrow funds in a country with a low interest rate (or borrowing cost) and buy assets in a country where returns are higher. The investment can take many forms, including stocks, bonds, funds, or even the higher-interest currency itself.

Carry trade: A growth confidence indicator

Now, investors/readers may legitimately ask, Why is it important to know what's happening to the carry trade?

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks that it's important to monitor carry trade flows and data because it's one indicator of investor confidence in a market's ability to produce a return on equity, and by extension, in its economy to grow.

In other words, the carry trade abounds when investors are confident; it wanes when they're not, he said.

One way investors/readers could characterize the current environment is as a world filled with concerns.

Concern about the U.S. housing sector. Concern about declining U.S. disposable income. Concerning about slowing GDP growth in Europe and Asia. Concern about the Yankees not winning the American League pennant.

O.K., that last item was a purely subjective, parochial one, but you get the point: there's concern that global economic conditions are worsening, not improving.

Europe's GDP is latest focal point

Further, while emerging markets in Asia, led by China and India, have been the growth story of the decade, the region really sending a chill up economists' -- business executives' -- spines is Europe, so says economist Glen Langan.

"Up through July we had seen weakness in Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, and the investment community's response was one of 'no big deal, they are not the major growth regions, anyway,'" Langan said. "But now there's signs of slowing in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, and nearly every demand-side indicator is in retreat. It's a pronounced psychological shift, no question."

The dollar Friday was on course to record its fifth consecutive weekly gain, propelled higher by the prospect that economies in Europe may be later in the recession/expansion economic cycle than the United States.

The above suggests the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will have to cut interest rates -- itself a bullish factor for the dollar -- with the U.S. economy recovering sooner than the economies in the United Kingdom and euro-zone -- another dollar-bullish circumstance.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened 1.5 cents to $1.4675 versus the euro, and about seven-tenths of a cent to $1.8632 versus the British pound. The dollar also rose about 1 yen to 110.61 versus Japan's yen and about one-half cent to $1.0988 versus the Swiss franc.

From dollar-bear to dollar-skeptic

Currency Trader Andrew Resnick said he's not a dollar bull yet, but the changing global economic landscape has moved him from the dollar-bear category to "the dollar-skeptic category."

"Clearly, fundamentals are shifting in favor of the dollar. Global growth is slowing, taking pressure off commodity prices. Export gains are lowering the U.S. trade deficit, and there's now a better than 60% chance Europe [including the U.K.] will have to cut interest rates," Resnick said. "Those are the best fundamentals for the dollar in about three years." Resnick added that he's presently flat, or had no open currency trading positions.

Analysts have been negative on the agri-business processing sector recently, but the stocks have been shedding value for two months and they may have to reconsider. Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is delivering 42% growth according to Smart Money.

The stock is down 16% from my original post recommending it for 2008 and it is trading down more this morning. However, I have not changed my opinion about the prospects of the company and my original rational has remained solid despite the wild swings in the stock over the past few months.

Last year when I posted Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world it looked like there was no downside, and even though it is disappointing to see the stock down now, all I can say is the investment opportunity is even better. As they are a leading producer of soy and soy products, how can one resist this level of growth at a P/E of 8, half the market average?