Anglogold (NYSE: AU) closed at $27.47 Thursday. Gold is recently down 3.11% to $789.20 according to Bloomberg. AU September option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.
Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) closed at $33.93 Thursday. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.64% to $113.37. VLO September option implied volatility of 53 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) closed at $24 Thursday. Copper is recently down 3.80% to 326 according to Bloomberg. PCU September option implied volatility of 53 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Archer Daniels (NYSE: ADM) closed at $26.62 Thursday. Corn futures are recently down 3.38% to 557.75, Soybean futures are down 2.59% to 1241 according to Track Data. ADM September option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
ADM opened this morning at $26.34. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.04 and a high of $27.25. As of 12:30, ADM is trading at $27.09, up $0.75 (2.8%). The chart for ADM looks bullish and S&P gives ADM a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 22.0% return in just four months as long as HANS is above $22.50 at September expiration. ADM would have to fall by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
In a conversation with an attorney friend of mine, who happens to be a woman, she asked for some general financial guidance. During the course of the conversation it occurred to me that women need to save more than men. There are many reasons for this, here are a few:
The first and most obvious reason women need to save more than men is that they live longer -- often without the support of a significant other. Living longer and living alone cost more money.
Second of all, women still do not have complete earnings parity with men. Some of this has to do with job type and some with history. But nevertheless, we are not there yet. If there is a 15% disparity, then a woman is starting at a disadvantage whether saving for her retirement in the future or for buying a gallon of gas today. This can only be made up by saving more and investing more. This is a worthy goal except that with less resources the difficulty is exacerbated.
Falling Oil Prices May Not Be as Good as You Think Oil prices are falling sharply, and that's good news. But not nearly as good as you might think. Lower prices mean less pain at the pump - but tougher times ahead for the economy. Falling oil prices suggest that the recession the U.S. has so far avoided is well on its way, as consumers pull back from the spending spree that drove economic growth earlier this decade. A weakening economy will mean more layoffs, further pressuring already reduced spending. Lower oil prices: a mixed blessing - FORTUNE
What Now for Bennigan's Franchisees? What happens to franchisees when a franchisor goes bankrupt? Bennigan's owners are about to find out. The pub-themed casual dining chain filed a Chapter 7 bankruptcy on July 29, meaning it chose to cease operations and liquidate its assets rather than attempt to reorganize under Chapter 11. Bennigan's closed all company-owned locations and announced plans to sell off the assets. The remaining 138 franchisees are still operating, but they face a tough road ahead. After a Franchisor Files for Bankruptcy - BusinessWeek In Photos: 11 Big Brands That Went Bankrupt & What Handppened Next to Franchisees
U.S. stock futures were lower Tuesday morning as oil prices continued to decline, with crude falling below $120 a barrel on demand concerns due to the economic slowdown in the U.S. Commodities in general have been declining. Also today, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision regarding interest rates and it is widely expected they will remain unchanged. Similarly, the Fed's outlook statement about outlook and focus may also remain largely the same according to expectations. Meanwhile, overseas, both the ECB and BoE are expected to leave rates unchanged.
One of Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)'s largest shareholders, Capital Research Global Investors, had asked to review the vote in last week's re-election of the Internet giant's board. Specifically, I guess, it was surprising the vote showed strong support -- 85% -- for CEO Jerry Yang. There's no sense dancing around this issue; basically the shareholder implies suspicions of wrongdoings (or really really incompetent tallying of votes).
Bloomberg reports that analysts now expect Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) to report net losses through the first quarter of 2009 as home-loan delinquencies rise to the highest on record. The the biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies report tomorrow and according to estimates will show a loss of 74 cents and 60 cents per share respectively. The losses may be greater than expected as we've seen before analysts underestimating the credit losses. It will not be pretty.
We had the internet bubble and the real estate bubble and now, there is the ethanol bubble. Recently, I ran some numbers on ethanol and to my amazement realized that it is – too use a catch phrase from the environmental world -- not sustainable. Turning food into fuel is just plain silly; and when oil prices come down the ethanol bubble could pop big.
I ran did a little research and found some numbers:
47% of the Mexician' diet is corn
it takes 2.4 pounds of corn a day to feed a hungry person
it takes 22 pounds of corn to make one gallon of ethanol
there are 42 gallons of refined gas in one barrel of oil
Now, a little basic math can be very enlightening. To replace one barrel of oil, it takes 42 gallons of ethanol or (42x22)=924 pounds of corn. That is enough corn to feed one hungry person for (924/2.4) 385 days – a little more than one year.
When natural disasters happen, there are always some companies that can turn the circumstances in their favor. Recent downpours in the Midwest provided such an opportunity as they came not only with high damages for people in the area, but also with floods for crop production, causing even higher agricultural commodity prices. The rise in corn and soybeans prices could easily lead to an increased demand for seeds, agricultural equipment, and fertilizers. BusinessWeeksuggests some big names to invest in that could offer us the advantages we are looking for.
One such company is Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), which could also benefit from higher ethanol prices, after purchasing seven businesses in 2007. Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is also amid possible winners, having forecast better-than-expected fertilizer earnings. Shell eggs producer Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM) is also on the selected list; the company saw its shares climb 15% year to date, and has just revealed a new dividend payout policy.
Another important name is Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), whose stock prices have surged 70% so far this year. BusinessWeek cites Mosaic as being able to benefit from higher prices for fertilizer and potash. Following the same logic, the article points out potash provider Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) and fertilizer distributor CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF), which should be able to take advantage of the weak dollar and higher sales prices.
Farm Stocks: Pick of the Crop Millions of acres of farmland may be under water, but some agricultural outfits stand to benefit as higher prices lead to demand for seeds, equipment, and fertilizer. They include Archer Daniels Midland, Mosiac, Potash Corp., Agriam, Monsanto and John Deere. Ag Stocks: Farm Favorites Millions More Could Get a Rebate If They File a Return Even as the IRS has sent out nearly 77 million tax rebates, more than 5 million retirees and disabled veterans who may qualify for a rebate haven't received one because they haven't filed a tax return. Millions more could get a rebate if they file a return - USATODAY.com
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Anheuser-Busch, Brasil Telecom and Finisar were today's noteworthy downgrades:
UBS downgraded Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) to Neutral from Buy citing the InBev unsolicited bid.
JP Morgan cut Brasil Telecom (NYSE: BRP) to Underweight from Neutral on concerns over the merger with Telemar.
Piper downgraded Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSR) to Neutral from Buy following strong Q4 results, as they believe the company's acquisition of Optium creates substantial integration risk.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Merrill cut Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) to Neutral from Buy.
PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ: PDLI) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Wachovia downgraded McClatchy News (NYSE: MNI) to Underperform from Market Perform.
Archer Daniels (NYSE: ADM) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
I have not decided who I am voting for yet. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say I have decided on multiple occasions only to become undecided again. While some will see me as fickle, or worse, others may be in the same boat.
I am also continuing to think about what difference any of the candidates can make on the economy, and based on these musings, where to invest. My current belief is that none of them will have a profound impact on our economy.
There are no financial wizards among them. Here is the shocker though: I like all three candidates, or at least can find some good in each of them. Each of them is a fighter, and I believe each one of them brings certain skill sets to the job. There are also things about each candidate that are inescapably negative. Clinton has so much baggage, Zsa Zsa Gabor would be jealous. Obama does not have the experience and he has a degree of arrogance (right sweetie); McCain is an old stick-in-the-mud who, as a long-time senator, has spent more hours with lobbyists than almost anybody, though he is pretending otherwise.
Where does this leave me from an investment perspective? My first choice, for stability with moderate growth and dividends, remains the defense sector. I wrote Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year a while back and I still think that it is the most secure. Here's why:
A) None of the candidates will want to appear soft on defense when we are at war, and all three have made threatening remarks in some country's direction to make sure the electorate knows that.
B) The War in Afghanistan and Iraq rages on, and even the most optimist view is that a draw-down will take years.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
Anglogold (NYSE: AU) closed at $27.47 Thursday. Gold is recently down 3.11% to $789.20 according to Bloomberg. AU September option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
In a conversation with an attorney friend of mine, who happens to be a woman, she asked for some general financial guidance. During the course of the conversation it occurred to me that women need to save more than men. There are many reasons for this, here are a few:
U.S. stock futures were lower Tuesday morning as oil prices continued to decline, with crude 
We had the internet bubble and the real estate bubble and now, there is the ethanol bubble. Recently, I ran some numbers on ethanol and to my amazement realized that it is – too use a catch phrase from the environmental world -- not sustainable. Turning food into fuel is just plain silly; and when oil prices come down the ethanol bubble could pop big.
When natural disasters happen, there are always some companies that can turn the circumstances in their favor. Recent downpours in the Midwest provided such an opportunity as they came not only with high damages for people in the area, but also with floods for crop production, causing even higher agricultural commodity prices. The rise in corn and soybeans prices could easily lead to an increased demand for seeds, agricultural equipment, and fertilizers. BusinessWeek .gif){kind=logo}
I have not decided who I am voting for yet. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say I have decided on multiple occasions only to become undecided again. While some will see me as fickle, or worse, others may be in the same boat.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
Closing Bell: Dow stages comeback as bulls battle bears
Investor confidence in global growth continues to decline
Can Jerry Seinfeld improve Microsoft's brand equity?
